From Vox:
We found that nominating Sanders would drive many
Americans — who would otherwise vote for a moderate Democrat — to vote for
Trump, especially otherwise Trump-skeptical Republicans.
Republicans are more likely to say they would vote for
Trump if Sanders is nominated: Approximately 2 percent of Republicans
choose Trump over Sanders, but desert Trump when we pit him against a
more moderate Democrat like Buttigieg, Biden, or Bloomberg....
But for Sanders to do as well as a moderate Democrat against Trump in
November by stimulating youth turnout, his nomination would need to
boost turnout of young left-leaning voters enormously — according to our
data, one in six left-leaning young people who otherwise wouldn’t vote
would need to turn out because Sanders was nominated. There are good
reasons to doubt that Sanders’s nomination would produce a youth turnout
surge this large....
In one analysis, we disregard what voters say about whether they would
vote, and use their demographics and party affiliation to infer the
shape of the likely electorate.... With this
approach, Sanders trails all three leading moderate candidates in
head-to-head polls against Trump.
