Because of Trump’s norm-shattering and a new infusion of younger voters into the electorate, Bernie Sanders stands a better chance of being elected president this year than he did in 2016. But don’t expect his present poll numbers to stay where they are for the rest of the year. Sanders will be very easy for Trump and the Republicans to demonize on the campaign trail, and the Vermont senator’s poll numbers will likely take a hit. How big a hit remains to be seen. Also, expect the polls to under-represent Trump’s support by two or three percentage points.
Bernie Sanders might still become president this year (and I wouldn’t mind seeing him, or another progressive, as president), but don’t expect a Sanders White House win to be the cakewalk that his supporters are saying it will be. For this reason — as well as because of America’s past voting patterns and the way the electoral system is tilted in favor of the Republicans — I still think, regrettably, that a more moderate candidate would be more likely to beat Trump.
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